Tour de France #1 Preview: Who will win the yellow jersey in Lille?

Cycling: At the 2025 Tour de France, the sprinters can once again look forward to a chance at the yellow jersey. The stage winner in Lille will also be the first overall leader—but who will it be?

A day for the sprinters

At 184,9 kilometers, the first stage on the French-Belgian border marks the start of the most important Grand Tour of the year – and it promises to be a race dominated by the sprinters. While the opening kilometers are traditionally characterized by nerves, the route profile actually offers little cause for hecticness. The route through the Pas-de-Calais region is ideal for an early breakaway group that could decide the intermediate classifications. A real selection is unlikely – unless there are crashes, which we obviously don't want to see. The wind shouldn't play a decisive role in this region either, so the general classification riders will remain vigilant but hardly have to worry about losing time. Back in the Nord department, the sprint teams will do everything they can to force a bunch sprint in Lille. The finish straight below the citadel offers no significant difficulties – perfect conditions for the strongest sprint train to prevail with the fastest man.

Who will win the mountain jersey?

While the yellow and green jerseys will likely go to the stage winner, the battle for the mountains jersey is wide open. Three fourth-category climbs await the pros. Whoever wins two of them will be guaranteed the points. It's likely that some explosive riders will venture into the breakaway, increasing the pace on the hills and sprinting for the points. The Dane, among others, is capable of such a feat. Magnus Court (Uno-X Mobility), the Colombian Sergio Higuita (XDS Astana), the Belgian Thibau Nys (Lidl – Trek) and the French Quentin Pacher (Groupama – FDJ).

Velomotion forecast: A Belgian duel at the border

The 2025 Tour de France will not leave France. However, the field will be closer to foreign territory than ever before at the start. Therefore, at the French-Belgian border, the Belgian sprinters will be particularly motivated to win the yellow jersey. We expect a two-horse race for the stage victory between Jasper Phillipsen (Alpecin – Deceuninck) and Tim Merlier (Soudal – Quick-Step). But the Italian jonathan milan (Lidl – Trek) is considered one of the favorites for the stage win. All three have excellent sprinting skills. Philipsen, for example, can count on none other than Mathieu van der Poel as a lead-out man – what a luxury! We consider the outsider's chances Jordy Meeus (RB – Bora – hansgrohe) and thus another Belgian. Biniam Girmay (Intermarché – Wanty) must also be mentioned, as the Eritrean won three stages last year. German hopes rest on Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain – Victorious) and Pascal Ackermann (Israel – Premier Tech).

*** Jasper Philipsen
**Tim Merlier, Jonathan Milan
* Jordi Meeus, Biniam Girmay, Phil Bauhaus