The e-bike is an unparalleled success story - and yet the headlines are always negative. It's time to put a few things into perspective. A commentary by Marcus Degen.
The e-bike has not only completely changed the world of cycling, the e-bike is a phenomenon, a role model for a product that is incredibly successful without subsidies, without government support, without multi-million dollar marketing campaigns and without the prescribed task of having to save the world - simply because it is a damn good product that its buyers like damn well.
This success story means that a lot is being said and written about it. The most recent example is a study by the country's best-known management consultancy. Roland Berger titled a recently published study "The European bicycle industry in crisis mode". (Download the study) And so what has to happen happens: Once again the rumor is being spread that "The bicycle industry is on the brink of collapse!" But the focus of the media, society and politics should be on declaring the e-bike to be an essential component of a new form of mobility.
The e-bike as a perfect product for an imperfect world
For years, the e-bike has been doing exactly what electric mobility on four wheels cannot: it is absolutely crisis-proof and has developed rapidly from the start without financial support, developing a dynamic that a product or technology can only develop if it is simply good and its time has come. And another aspect that is often overlooked: the center of development for the e-bike is in Europe, actually in Germany - not in the USA or China, as is the case with almost all modern technologies. For Germany as a business location, this is a huge success and also a great opportunity that we must build on and not allow ourselves to be talked down.
Of course, the word "crisis" describes the general state of the economy in Germany quite well at the moment. The last pay rise may have been years ago, the cost of living has increased, but fortunately private consumers can also put up with a lean year - trusting that better times will come again.
This does not seem to be the case in the bicycle industry – at least that is the impression one gets if one follows some reports and analyses. Supposedly one year of crisis follows the next, sales are declining and E-bikes and bicycles are piling up in deserted shopsthat nobody wants. Why are these horror scenarios constructed? If you visit a bike shop yourself, for example to get a spare part, a completely different picture emerges: you have to queue, the staff have their hands full and the price of a "normal" e-bike is something you would like to have as a monthly net income at some point.
Crisis? What crisis?
What's going on in the bicycle world? To understand the current bad mood, you have to go back almost 15 years. In 2010, retailers sold around 200.000 electric bikes - mostly everyday and touring bikes aimed at older users. Mountain bikes with assisted drives had just been seen at trade fairs and people had laughed about them - "real" cyclists, let alone athletes, didn't want to get their hands dirty with them. Around four million bicycles and electric bikes were sold in total that year; the average price (including e-bikes, mind you) was 460 euros - with these, as well as parts and accessories, the industry in Germany generated sales of around 2010 billion euros in 2,4.
No, a medium-sized bike shop was not necessarily a gold mine at the end of the 6,5s - but that was to change in the coming decade. The electric bike business picked up speed; e-MTBs became a sure-fire success and more and more people discovered the e-bike as a practical and contemporary means of transport for their everyday lives. And so it happened that the industry's turnover almost tripled within ten years - to around 2020 billion euros in the Corona year 2022. Everyone wanted e-bikes, and both trade and industry were in high spirits. They ordered and produced as much as they could; in 7,5, turnover even rose to almost XNUMX billion euros.
How come three times as many bikes have been sold now as in 2010? Not at all - it's just that in 2022 an e-bike cost an average of 2.800 euros, while a bike without a motor still only cost 470 euros. The demand for electric bikes rose to unprecedented heights and they became the industry's revenue generator.
So why the crisis mood? Well, somehow everyone has been in crisis since the Corona years. However, only a few industries can look back on such rapid development as the bicycle trade. This is also made clear by a look at total retail sales: from 2010 to 2022, they rose by "only" just under 50 percent, namely from 427 to 631 billion euros, while sales in the bicycle business rose by 330 percent in the same period.
So is the bicycle industry doing well? The fact that the industry's sales are now falling for the first time in decades is certainly also due to overheated prices - and then, faced with full warehouses, someone cuts costs, there is a big outcry or talk of a major crisis follows immediately - there can be no other reason for reduced prices.
The bicycle industry will heal itself, but politics is required!
In view of constant innovations and regular model changes, it cannot be a good strategy to hold on to the stock of goods - especially since the trade is increasingly facing competition from other sides. On the one hand, it is the manufacturers themselves who are partly taking over direct sales; on the other hand, more and more companies from outside the industry are extending their feelers towards e-bikes. The fact that global players such as Porsche or most recently DJI Jumping on the rolling bandwagon is more a testament to belief in the potential that lies dormant here than to any kind of doom and gloom.
Industry experts assume that the crisis in the bicycle industry will be overcome in the next two years. Sales should return to the level of the "Corona year" as early as 2025 and even continue to grow thereafter.
Perhaps all those involved in the bicycle industry should take a step back in terms of the crisis mood. In society, everything has already been set so that the topic remains viable in the future. It would be desirable for politicians to finally play a long-term role in setting this course. Infrastructure is the magic word! For many potential buyers, "fear of traffic" is still the first reason for not buying an e-bike or not regularly using it to commute to work. And reports of the major crisis in the bicycle industry are not well received, especially by private consumers.