Cycling: On the fifth day of the Giro d'Italia 2020, a wavy section awaits the pros. The favorites will show themselves, but the day's victory will probably go to a breakaway.
A day for the runaways?
Let's continue with Tour of Italy up the boot to the north. After the start in Mileto, the pros drive over 225,0 kilometers to Camigliatello Silano. Again, the stage will not be easy. Two mountains of the third category and one mountain of the first category have to be conquered. In general, the section can be described as very wavy. The fight for the stage win only really gets down to business after the second sprint at 187,5 kilometers. The Valico di Montescuro is 22,7 kilometers long and has an average gradient of 5,8 percent. Then it's downhill for another 11,0 kilometers to the finish line. So we won't see a mass sprint. And this final climb is also far too difficult for hill-proof sprinters like Peter Sagan or Michael Matthews. So tomorrow the breakaways could get their chance.
Velomotion prognosis: Davide Villella is the 5th stage
Betting on tomorrow's stage winner is like a lottery if we're going for a breakaway win. If you want to win the day, you have to want to, be able to and of course be allowed to join the group. Many factors come together when forming a breakaway group. The most important of these is certainly this "May". Because if a rider isn't far behind in the overall standings, the leader's team is unlikely to let him go. So an attack is pointless anyway. At the "Want" it's all about whether the rider sees his chances of success and whether he wants to join the group on this stage. If not, the tip will come to nothing anyway. And whether a rider is able to win a stage as a breakaway is ultimately decided by the factor "Can". A sprinter, for example, will not cheer tomorrow. The stage winner must be a good climber.
Based on these three factors, we compile our Velomotion forecast. The Italian could therefore have good chances Davide Villela have. The Mountain Jersey Winner in the Vuelta a Espana 2017 already has ten big country tours in his legs. So the 29-year-old doesn't lack experience. In 2016 he finished fifth in the Tour of Lombardy and won the wavy Japan Cup. Tomorrow's section is perfect for him. It's tough, but not too tough. In the last climb he should be able to keep up with his companions. But with his offensive driving style, he might even be able to distance them there. Also Carl Fredrik Hagen is a hot potato for the tip tomorrow. He disappointed up Mount Etna, which means that he no longer plays a role in the general classification. Maybe he'll be let go and he'll come back with a stage win. The prerequisite for this, however, is that not a teammate thomas degendt chose this part. Of course, the Belgian is always one of the top favorites on stages like this.
☆☆☆ Davide Villella (Movistar)
* * Carl Fredrik Hagen (Lotto – Soudal), Attila Valter (CCC)
* Ben O'Connor (NTT), Kilian Frankiny (Groupama – FDJ), Jonas Gregaard (Astana)