cycling: Tour de France Stage #4 Prediction: mass sprint in Vittel

Cycling: Marcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors) today on the third stage spared the Tour de France. The winner of second section knew he couldn't win. Tomorrow his chances are much better, even if it's another uphill stretch. Who are his opponents? Can Marcel Kittel defend the green jersey?

The last kilometer is slightly uphill

The fourth stage of the 2017 Tour de France does not start in France either. The starting point Bad Mondorf is a municipality in Luxembourg. After a few kilometers, the drivers cross the border to France. The whole day it goes over 207,5 kilometers south to the destination Vittel. The small town is best known for the mineral water brand, which also acts as a sponsor of the Tour de France. In 2009, Vittel was the destination of a stage of the Tour de France. At that time, the Dane Nicki Sörensen won for the Saxo Bank team as a soloist. Such a scenario is rather unlikely this year, as the sprinter teams will probably not miss such a chance to win a stage. The stage is significantly easier than today's, so almost all sprinters shouldn't have any problems. The last kilometer is slightly uphill, but with an average gradient of around 1,7 percent, this should hardly play a role in the outcome of the race.

Will there be another sprint chaos or will the trains work this time?

This season we could already see in some mass sprints that the classic sprint moves - in the truest sense of the word - are no longer used. Even on the second stage of the Tour de France, hardly any sprinter had helpers at his side. The fast men teams can control the peloton up to the Flamme Rouge, but after that the teammates seem to lose track of each other more and more often. This phenomenon can be easily explained by the fact that more and more winners are considered. In previous years, spectators could be sure that one of the top two or three sprinters would win the race. The respective teams were so superior to the opponents on this terrain that their captains could be piloted to just before the finish line. Nowadays five to ten teams compete in a mass sprint. Everyone wants to put their captain in the best position. This is followed by a slashing and stabbing and a confusing situation that arises as a result. We haven't seen a sprint train with more than five men for a long time. The captains are often happy if they still have two men with them for the last kilometer. Because the role of a starter can be worth its weight in gold. If you don't have a driver from your own team, you have to look for the right rear wheel from an opponent. If this rear wheel turns out to be too weak, then the train has left for the stage win.

Our tip: Arnaud Démare ensures the first French stage victory

Marcel Kittel won the second stage of the Tour de France without a classic approach, so to speak. The German has had the highest top speed in the peloton for years. If the competition doesn't manage to pilot their own captain perfectly forward, Marcel Kittel will celebrate several more times at this year's Tour de France. A tip for Marcel Kittel would be the logical consequence. Without a doubt he is also the favorite to win the fourth stage tomorrow. Due to the strong performances of Arnaud Démare (FDJ) so far, we are betting on the first French stage win at this year's Tour de France. Arnaud Démare also finds the slightly uphill home straight convenient. The Frenchman has already proven today that he is one of the fastest men who can climb short climbs best. The home straight will not pose any major problems for Marcel Kittel and André Greipel, but this is still a small advantage for drivers like Arnaud Démare, Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain Merida), Michael Matthews (Sunweb) and Peter Sagan (Bora-hansgrohe). We don't think Alexander Kristoff (Katusha-Alpecin) and Mark Cavendish (Dimension Data) have a really good chance as they don't seem to be in their best shape.

*** Arnaud Demare
** Marcel Kittel, André Greipel
* Peter Sagan, Michael Matthews, Sonny Colbrelli

Overall ranking of the 2017 Tour de France after 3 of 21 stages