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Cyclingroad cyclingTour de France

cycling: Tour de France stage #16 prognosis: How does Kittel cope with the wind, weather and start?

July 17, 2017 by Michael Behringer

Marcel Kittel Tour de France

Cycling: Tomorrow is after second rest day the Tour de France the next flat stage on the program. Actually a clear thing for Marcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors) - if it weren't for the beginning of the stage. This is classified as extremely hilly. In addition, a strong wind will probably blow through the field tomorrow. So it could be an exciting flat stage.

Tour de France stage profile

First wavy, then flat

After the second day of rest, the Tour de France will continue at a relatively leisurely pace. From Le Puy-en-Velay, the pros drive over 165 kilometers to Romans-sur-Isère. This section is classified as a flat stage, although the first 110 kilometers are almost all up and down. Two mountain classifications await the drivers within this first half of the race. These belong to the fourth or third category and are therefore relatively easy for the sprinters to master. The last 50 to 60 kilometers correspond to a typical flat stage. Although it sometimes goes uphill and downhill here, the altitude difference is ultimately negligible. The last kilometer is then slightly uphill again. But the prevailing percentages there should not have any impact on the result.



Tour de France Marcel Kittel
Feels good in green: Marcel Kittel will wear the green jersey all the way to Paris if he doesn't miss another mass sprint.

Our tip: Marcel Kittel fills up half a dozen

If you look at the profile of the stage, you can definitely assume a bunch sprint. However, the wavy start is not the only challenge for the pros. A relatively strong wind is also expected, which – in the truest sense of the word – has to be overcome. Not only the sprinters are in demand, but also the classification drivers. If someone is caught on the wrong foot tomorrow, he can lose several minutes if the wind is actually strong. Since the Quick-Step Floors team is by far the best classic team, we assume that Marcel Kittel can be perfectly protected. Nothing stands in the way of his sixth victory. Michael Matthews' Team Sunweb may try to distance the German from the start. However, this will not succeed over the entire distance. Our tip: Marcel Kittel wins his sixth stage and consolidates the green jersey!

*** Marcel Kittel
** Michael Matthews, André Greipel
* Dylan Groenewegen, Alexander Kristoff, Nacer Bouhanni



Tour de France preview: Those were the Velomotion predictions

StageRoutestage winnerVelomotion tip
1st stageDüsseldorfGeraint Thomas (Sky)Tony Martin (Katusha Alpecin)
2st stageDusseldorf – LiègeMarcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors)Marcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors)
3st stageVerviers-LongwyPeter Sagan (Bora-hansgrohe)Peter Sagan (Bora-hansgrohe)
4st stageMondorf-les-Bains-VittelArnaud Demare (FDJ)Arnaud Demare (FDJ)
5st stageVittel-La Planche des Belles FillesFabio Aru (Astana)Fabio Aru (Astana)
6st stageVesoul-TroyesMarcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors)Marcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors)
7st stageTroyes - Nuits Saint GeorgesMarcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors)Marcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors)
8st stageDole - Station des RoussesLilian Calmejane (Direct Energy)Diego Ulissi (UAE)
9st stageNantua-ChamberyRigoberto Uran (Cannondale-Drapac)Chris FroomeSky
10st stagePerigueux-BergeracMarcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors)Marcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors)
11st stageEymet-PauMarcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors)Marcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors)
12st stagePau-PeyragudesRomain Bardet (Ag2r)Guillaume Martin (Wanty Groupe Gobert)
13st stageSaint Girons - FoixWarren Barguil (Sunweb)Simon Yates (Orica Scott)
14st stageBlagnac-RodezMichael Matthews (Sunweb)Daniel Martin (Quick Step Floors)
15st stageLaissac-Sévérac l'Église - Le Puy-en-VelayBauke Mollema (Trek Segafredo)Tiesj Benoot (Lotto Soudal)
16st stageLe Puy-en-Velay – Romans-sur-IsereMichael Matthews (Sunweb)Marcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors)
17st stageLa Mure - Serre ChevalierPrimoz Roglic (LottoNL-Jumbo)Simon Yates (Orica Scott)
18st stageBriançon-IzoardWarren Barguil (Sunweb)Chris FroomeSky
19st stageEmbrun-Salon de ProvenceEdvald Boasson Hagen (Dimension Data)Edvald Boasson Hagen (Dimension Data)
20st stageMarseilleMaciej Bodnar (Bora-hansgrohe)Chris FroomeSky

21st stage
Montgeron – Paris/Champs-ElyséesAndré Greipel (Lotto Soudal)

The current overall ranking of the 2017 Tour de France after 15 of 21 stages

PLATZDriverCountryTeamTime
1.Chris FroomeGreat BritainSky64:40:21
2.Fabio ArauItalyAstana+ 0: 18
3.Romain BardetFranceAg2r+ 0: 23
4.Rigoberto UránColombiaCannondale Drapac+ 0: 29
5.Daniel MartinIrelandQuick Step Floors+ 1: 12
6.Mikel LandaSpainSky+ 1: 17
7.Simon yatesGreat BritainOrica Scott+ 2: 02
8.louis meintjesSouth AfricaUAE+ 5: 09
9.Alberto counterSpainTrek-Segafredo+ 5: 37
10.Damian CarusoItalyBMC+ 6: 05
Tags:smockMatthewsNewsa prognosticTour de FrancePreviewwind

More than Michael Behringer

Cycling with all its tactics, stage analyses, placements and forecasts are Michael Behringer's great passion. In 1996 he tracked his first Tour de France. Since then he has observed almost every race. His passion for cycling has been with him for over two decades. There is no end in sight.

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