Cycling: Sunday is the day: The 101st edition of the Tour of Flanders is on the agenda. For many cycling fans, this classic is the most important and most beautiful race of the season. After Fabian Cancellara celebrated his farewell last year, another legend will be giving up his bike in 2017: Tom Boonen would like to triumph a fourth time at the Ronde van Vlaanderen after his 15th start. What are his chances? We check the shape of all favorites and analyze the route.
The Muur van Geraardsbergen is back
18 slipways, half of them with cobblestone sections, plus five flat pavè passages: That is the Tour of Flanders 2017. Over 260,8 kilometers it leads to Oudenaarde. The start is not in Bruges on the Grote Markt, as it has been since 1998, but in Antwerp. However, this change should not be the only one, because the legendary Muur van Geraardsbergen returns to the circuit after six years. The Wall will not play a decisive role, as it will be crossed 95 kilometers before the finish line. The spectators should tune in anyway, because the mood of the fans on site should be impressive. In addition, a first preliminary decision will probably be made no later than 40 kilometers away. Then the Oude Kwaremont will be driven on for the second time and immediately afterwards the Paterberg. Koppenberg, Steenbeekdries, Taaienberg and Kruisberg follow. 16,7 kilometers before the finish line, the Oude Kwaremont is up for the last time, 3,5 kilometers later the Paterberg again. This is where the final decision is usually made. Then a 13,2 kilometer flat section leads to the finish in Oudenaarde
A new generation is finally taking the helm
From 2005 to 2014, five drivers were celebrated as winners at the Ronde van Vlaanderen: Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara each won three times, Stijn Devolder triumphed twice and Alessandro Ballan and Nick Nuyens once. On Sunday only the two Belgians Devolder and Boonen will be at the start. In the past two years it has already become apparent that a new generation has taken over the reins in Flanders. Alexander Kristoff won in 2015, Peter Sagan in 2016. Even younger drivers are pushing for it. Last year, Alexey Lutsenko was 14th and Dylan Van Baarle sixth. Both were 23 years old. A possible successor to Boonen, the Belgian Tiesj Benoot, even managed fifth place in 2015 at the age of just 21. So is Tom Boonen's dream of a golden farewell in Flanders even realistic?
Tom Boonen: underdogs versus his followers
When talking about the favorites for the Tour of Flanders, the name Tom Boonen (Quick-Step Floors) usually comes up right in the first sentence. On the one hand, that's understandable, because the Belgian has already won the round three times. On the other hand, he shouldn't really be counted among the narrower circle of favourites. His results in the past two to three years have been too bad. Time and time again, Quick-Step has relied on him, even though other riders on the team actually seemed to be stronger. They certainly want to give Boonen a farewell gift this year, but it would be a big surprise if the oldie could actually compete for victory. Last year his strength flared again with second place at Paris-Roubaix. But the round is more difficult and suits drivers like Peter Sagan more. Boonen finished in the top 3 in the E10 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem one-day races, so his form isn't bad. We also believe that he can make it into the top ten at the Ronde. But it's not enough for the very front.
Form barometer: 75 percent
Prognosis: 3rd to 10th place
Peter Sagan: Top favorite - if it weren't for the tactics
When Tom Boonen was able to win the Tour of Flanders for the last time, Peter Sagan (Bora-hansgrohe) was just starting to take off: He won Gent-Wevelgem, E3 Harelbeke, became European champion once, World champion twice and then also snagged the Flanders- tour. The Slovak starts almost every race as one of the favourites. The still only 2016-year-old professional is rightly regarded as the best driver in the world at the moment. However, his strength is also his weakness, because his status as a favorite makes it very difficult for him to tactic with his opponents. We last saw this at Milan-Sanremo and Gent-Wevelgem. Nobody wants to work with Sagan, who is strong in sprinting. As a result, the Slovak either has to keep up the pace himself and ends up lacking the strength, or can watch everyone and then a soloist can drive away. At the Tour of Flanders, Sagan will attack at the latest at the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg and try his luck as a soloist. Given his form, his prospects should be rosy.
Form barometer: 95 percent
Prognosis: Victory as a soloist
Alexander Kristoff: low-key or realist?
In 2015, Alexander Kristoff (Katusha-Alpecin) won the Tour of Flanders ahead of Niki Terpstra. Last year he was fourth. So it's no wonder that the experts count the Norwegian among the narrower circle of favorites again this season. However, he does not see himself there. Quite understandable when you look at the latest results. After all, in recent years he has always had his best results very early on. Although he won one or the other stage, he usually lost out against his biggest competitors. In addition, he is weakening considerably in the one-day races this year. He didn't finish in the top 3 at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, E20 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem. Given his form, it seems unlikely that he will be able to follow the attacks on the last two slipways.
Form barometer: 60 percent
Prognosis: 3rd to 10th place
Greg Van Avermaet: Now it's supposed to be a monument
For many years, Greg Van Avermaet (BMC) was considered a good racer. Only the top results were missing. This assumption has had to be revised for a few months. The Belgian has developed into an absolute winner within a year. He won gold at the 2016 Rio Olympics, Tirreno-Adriatico and the GP de Montréal. Gone are the days when pundits had Greg Van Avermaet on their list but traditionally didn't see him as a winning driver. He is in top form this season too. He won the one-day races Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem. In addition, he is one of the few drivers who could beat a Sagan in a direct duel in the sprint. After his transformation into his winning driver, Van Avermaet finally wants to win a monument.
Form barometer: 101 percent
Prognosis: podium
Philippe Gilbert: A small comeback in the autumn of his career
Who would have thought that Philippe Gilbert (Quick-Step Floors) would once again be among the favorites for a race like this? His best days are long gone. In 2011 he won three monuments in eight days: the Amstel Gold Race, the Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège. There was also Milan-Sanremo and the Clasica San Sebastian. A year later he became world champion. After that it went downhill. In 2014 his fire flared up again when he was able to win the Amstel Gold Race again and was also victorious in the Tour of Beijing. But he couldn't find his constant old strength again. With his move to the Quick-Step Floors team, he wants to give his career another boost. With success: he secured overall victory in the small preparation tour Driedaagse De Panne-Koksijde. Still, a victory at the Tour of Flanders seems far-fetched. Not even in the best of days could he triumph here. However, he could play an important role within his team's tactics. It is quite conceivable that he will go on the offensive earlier than expected and thus try his luck as a soloist. But it is also possible that he is fully committed to his teammates and in the end is not allowed to drive on his own account.
Form barometer: 90 percent
Prognosis: Top 10 or team tactical element
John Degenkolb: Under the Pressure of Expectations
Probably the only German hope is John Degenkolb (Trek-Segafredo). Due to his move to Cancellara's former team, he is often referred to as his successor. Is this also reflected in the results for the monuments? The fact is that as a former winner of Paris-Roubaix, he must not automatically be forgotten at the Ronde van Vlaanderen either. Last year he missed the start due to his training accident, but in 2015 he made people sit up and take notice as seventh. It will be important for him to hold Sagan's rear wheel. In the sprint he can compete with the Slovak. One hope could also be swimming in the chasing group and letting the strong men from Quick-Step Floors close the gap again. John Degenkolb can certainly take on a recaptured Sagan and a weakened Boonen or Van Avermaet. He showed good form finishing seventh at Milan-Sanremo and fifth at Gent-Wevelgem.
Form barometer: 85 percent
Prognosis: 5rd to 10th place
Sep Vanmarcke: Waiting for the big hit
How strong is Sep Vanmarcke? Many experts are currently asking this question. In top form, the Belgian would be an absolute favorite for victory. But his latest results do not indicate that. He was third at Be Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, but he didn't make it into the top 3 at Dwars door Vlaanderen and E20 Harelbeke. Last year, like in 2014, he was third at the Ronde van Vlaanderen. The 28-year-old was at the forefront of many classics, but he wasn't ready to make it big yet. Due to his rather less intoxicating form, it is not to be expected this year either. However, we must not write off the sympathetic Dutchman.
Form barometer: 50 percent
Prognosis: 3rd to 10th place
Outsiders hope for the perfect daily form
Seldom do the underdogs triumph at such important one-day classics. A success for the renowned teams is far too important. But a team in particular can mess everything up with tactical games. Not only the two co-favorites Tom Boonen and Philippe Gilbert ride in the Quick-Step Floors team, but also Niki Terpstra and Zdenek Stybar. These two are also regarded as specialists for such races and could benefit from a tactically shaped race. We should also not underestimate a few other pilots who have already proven their skills on cobblestone sections. Luke Rowe (Sky) finally finished fifth here last year. Oliver Naesen (Ag2r) and Tiesj Benoot (Lotto Soudal) also have some experts on their list. Maybe even a German will surprise us? According to the latest interview statements, Tony Martin (Katusha-Alpecin) gets a free ride for the Ronde. When Lukas Pöstlberger (Bora-hansgrohe) presents himself as well as he did at E3 Harelbeke, the fans from Austria also have someone to cheer for. Although he will probably have to work for Peter Sagan. Either way, cycling fans should tune in on Sunday. Year after year, the Tour of Flanders is one of the most spectacular races.